Russia is preparing a provocation in Donbass (which it has already accused Ukraine of in advance)
Two facts show this.
The first is information about Russia’s desire to implement the idea of bringing Russian peacekeepers to Donbass, voiced more than two weeks ago.
And the second is the completion by the Germans and the French, under H-4, of the “cluster proposals”.
It is clear that the Ukrainian public became aware of these clusters a few days ago (but not of the essence, not of what is in them!), while the Russian Federation has known about them for at least a month… Moscow, through Gryzlov, responds by accusing Ukraine of “provoking an escalation of the conflict in Donbass” (that is, not an escalation itself, but provoking it – it is like a warning that an escalation will happen, but the blame for it lies with Ukraine in advance); This is evidenced by the interception of 07.04.2021 at 12:42 conversation of the Russian curator with the call sign “Rostov” (military man, military rank of major, commander of GSADN (howitzer self-propelled artillery division), based in Novoazovsk, Donetsk region) during which he ordered the attack their own positions in order to accuse Ukraine of shelling their positions
– Russia prepares public opinion by fomenting anti-Ukrainian military hysteria in the occupation and Russian media by spreading fakes about the war and the AFU offensive;
– Russia has stepped up repairs to its frontline positions in Selected areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the construction of a second defence line;
– Russia has begun preparations to mobilise local and its “volunteer” military reserves;
– Russia has started promoting the idea of introducing “Russian peacekeepers” to Donbass in international organizations and preparing for a relevant propaganda campaign in the media;
If you add it all up, you get the following picture.
Putin is dissatisfied with the situation in H-4 (Western “cluster proposals”) and seeing that he is losing the initiative, is preparing a military provocation in Donbass. Russia’s plans include shelling its own positions of the so-called “militia” in Selected areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, or worse, the Russians plan to shoot at civilians in the so-called DPR, blaming it on the AFU. Mariupol, the Vostochniy we still remember! Further rocket attacks by the Russians on AFU command posts cannot be ruled out either!
Public opinion has been prepared by the Russians, additional military equipment from the Russian Federation has been moved to the Selected areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, everything is ready for a provocation that could become a pretext for the introduction of “Russian peacekeepers” into the Selected areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Fearing that a provocation could trigger a counter-offensive by the AFU – Russia is preparing to defend its own occupied territories in the Donbass. The aim of the provocation and the introduction of Russian “peacekeepers” is to create a new reality in the Donbass, which will make the German-French “cluster proposals” no longer relevant to Russia, and allow the Abkhaz-style conflict (with “Russian citizens” on the demarcation line) to be mothballed. That is to say, the reformatting of the region into a Russian military base under the guise of de-populated “DPR” – “LPR” and the possibility of resumption of hostilities at any moment Moscow needs. Since the scenario of Ukraine joining the “DPR-LPR” fails and the geopolitical backdrop becomes unfavourable – Moscow is starting to play the long game… It is therefore important to distinguish between a provocation and an offensive, to correctly assess the enemy’s actions and react appropriately, without giving the excuse of introducing “peacekeepers”…
Although, Putin doesn’t need an excuse. Hitler did not need a real attack by Poles on a German radio station to take over Poland, he did everything for them himself… The question is, why are Germany, France and Britain silent?